Igor Pavensky, head of Rusagrotrans Analytical Center, presented the key estimates of grain production and exports in the current agricultural season during the main agricultural conference “Agroholdings of Russia” organized by the Agroinvestor project.
As the expert noted, the gross yield of grain and wheat in Russia in the 2025/26 season is projected to increase from 124.9 mln tons to 138.4 mln tons, including wheat – from 82.6 mln tons to 88.5-90 mln tons, compared to the 2024/25 season.
“The yield of wheat in Siberia is expected to exceed the estimate despite smaller areas. The yield in the Stavropol region has reached its highest. Moreover, the yield in the Central and Volga regions is expected to reach the highest of 2022-2023. Thus, it will completely offset the 3.25 mln ton drop in the Southern Federal District," said Igor Pavensky.
When it comes to exports, the preliminary estimate for the 2025/26 season is as follows:
• Wheat exports are estimated at 44 mln tons (42.1 mln tons in 2024/25),
• Barley exports – at 5.3 mln tons (4.7 mln tons),
• Corn exports – at 3.8 mln tons (3.2 mln tons),
• The total grain and grain legume exports are projected at 57.8 mln tons (53.4 mln tons).
The rail transportation development trends were specifically touched upon by Igor Pavensky. Grain exports by rail in July-November 2025/26 are close to its highest of 10.3 mln tons, with wheat as the main commodity (89%).
About a half of the rail export potential has been currently exported. After a weak start in July and August, record monthly volumes of grain have been shipped for export over the past three months. It was driven mostly by the shift in the geography of transportation: the role of Russia's Central, Volga and Siberian regions increased, while the value of the southern regions declined.
It is projected that grain transported by rail (excluding grain legumes) will exceed 20 mln tons during the 2025/26 season, while growing from the last season (almost 16 mln tons) and the average annual levels for the last five years (18 mln tons).
As far as the global market is concerned, Igor Pavensky noted that yield of wheat in the top 10 exporting countries is projected at 677 mln tons in the 2025/26 season, up 46 mln tons from the last season.
Significant production growth is projected in six out of 10 countries, with yield in the remaining countries expected to be close to last year's high levels. Highest yields are projected in Canada, Argentina, India and Kazakhstan, the second-highest - in the EU and China, and the third-highest - in Australia.
